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Other documents in English نسخة قابلة للطباعة
Fifty years after the foundation of the Fourth International - What perspectives for internationalist revolutionaries today? Pamphlet published by the ICU
winter 1988
السابق التالي
Trotsky's perspectives on the eve of the War
By 1938, Trotsky no longer expected that a regroupment around a new International would take place immediately nor did he expect a revolutionary upturn in the short term. Among the many hypotheses he had made about the way in which the new International could emerge, he had even envisaged that it could emerge much later, in many years, among the rubble and ruins left by the victory of fascism and the war.
By 1938 Trotsky knew that the war was unavoidable. Precisely because the communist generation around the Third International had failed to find its way back to the revolutionary road. Once the imperialist bourgeoisies had each defeated or neutralised their own working class, they would be able to settle their accounts with one another, which meant they would throw the proletariat onto the battlefields.
He also thought that the unavoidable involvement of the USSR would be another critical factor. Neither imperialist camp could allow it to remain outside the conflict to consolidate itself while imperialism was weakened by the war. At a time when the Red Army had just been beheaded by Stalin, the involvement of the USSR in the war could reveal its fragility and lead to defeats which in turn could spark off social explosions.
Of course the Russian bourgeois social forces could use this opportunity to try and take their revenge on the working class with the help of one of the imperialist camps. But the Russian working class could also use it to take its revenge on the bureaucracy in the name of communism. The coming war could allow Trotsky to resume contacts with the Russian proletariat if it were pushed on the revolutionary road.
Trotsky could only get prepared for such a possibility, on the basis of which he launched the Fourth International.
السابق التالي